Collectible Minifigs Series 1 Now Available

[JamesBenjamin]

To answer the question about why something would be in Target's computer if they're not ordering it: they likely update with EVERY SKU available from a relatively small (in #s of SKUs) company like Lego. A SKU is really only like 24 bits of info, so its easier to dump all the new ones in the system even if some end up unused, as they're pretty small data-wise.

I ordered a few cases from Entertainment Earth and when I talked to my salesperson (I have a business account, so I have my own buyer contact) she said that big box retailers are not ordering these because they don't have the ability to sell/market them. They're so small they are likely to get shoplifted alot/easily, and they don't have a counter set up they can put them behind (like TRU or other specialty retailers). She also ensured me that their (EE's) orders will be fulfilled by Lego, but they're only getting that one order in, no replenishment.

On a side note: I did see them in Borders today (Manassas VA), they were on the info counter in the toy section. Priced at $2.99 though, so I passed. The boxes did look like someone had rummaged through them and bought all the good ones.

[Iare Tosevite]

That guy, all boxes got same amounts of minifigures.

[The Brain]

The probability of getting doubles of a figure in a randomly filled order are 1 out of 256, or 0.39%. If anyone has gotten triples in a random order, that's a 1 out of 4,096 chance, or 0.024% chance. If triples in a set have happened to anyone, you should buy a few scratch-off lottery tickets cause you've got some serious luck. Either that or something fishy is going on.

I remember how to do probabilities when it comes to cards (when a specific number is known for each deck) but I don't know how to do a statistical probability for something like this.....however, common sense tells you it will be above 25% to get a double, as after you pick your first figure, there are 4 left to choose and 16 total options....so I'd have to go out on a limb here and say .39% is just a tadddd bit off.

My assumption was that it was a pure 1 in 16 chance of any of the five figures being figure "x". The probability of getting one of that figure is 1 out of 16, and two is 1 out of 16 times 1 out of 16. Same logic for triples. I can see how this would be different if LEGO is just breaking out the packages of 60, but that was the basis of my reasoning.

[zaskar]

I'm guessing they're pulling the group of five from the same boxes being used at retail. It's already been noted by others that the figures are grouped in the box. The packer just grabs the next five in a row. Much faster than trying to pull from random locations. That being said, five of the same figure is possible based on the distribution in a box of 60.

[Mister Ed]

I ordered a few cases from Entertainment Earth and when I talked to my salesperson (I have a business account, so I have my own buyer contact) she said that big box retailers are not ordering these because they don't have the ability to sell/market them. They're so small they are likely to get shoplifted alot/easily, and they don't have a counter set up they can put them behind (like TRU or other specialty retailers).

While they seem to be right about big box retailers not ordering them in the US, I assume their explanation is simply a guess, since it fails on a few logical counts. One being that Wal-mart in Canada apparently IS carrying these, and the other being that, in my local Target at least, there is a specific area set up, at the end of the checkout row, where they already carry small collectibles like individual packs of collectible cards. That is where I would expect to see these if they got them.

But your explanation of why they might have the codes and not get the product makes sense. It should be easily tested, as well, by checking an item that is exclusive somewhere else, I imagine. If they just dump in all LEGO codes, that would be in there too, right?

[schlectus]

The probability discussions are just a tad hilarious. The fact is, the figures are lined up in the boxes...they are not assorted by fig per box count and then scattered throughout the box. I know this, because I dug into a fresh box at TRU, and bought a row of them. Guess what? 3 divers, 3 skaters, etc...and they were one right after the other. If the S@H guys are grabbing them in the same manner that I did, then getting duplicates is not probability, maliciousness, or any of the other "theories" out there...it's just simply going to happen. You can begin your statistical analysis and breakdown if you assume that S@H is going to rummage and scatter a ton of packs together before selecting your order. But I doubt that's happening.

[Mos_Eisley]

The probability discussions are just a tad hilarious. The fact is, the figures are lined up in the boxes...they are not assorted by fig per box count and then scattered throughout the box. I know this, because I dug into a fresh box at TRU, and bought a row of them. Guess what? 3 divers, 3 skaters, etc...and they were one right after the other. If the S@H guys are grabbing them in the same manner that I did, then getting duplicates is not probability, maliciousness, or any of the other "theories" out there...it's just simply going to happen. You can begin your statistical analysis and breakdown if you assume that S@H is going to rummage and scatter a ton of packs together before selecting your order. But I doubt that's happening.

I mentioned in my post that the figs are grouped together in the boxes. Getting multiples doesn't surprise me based on this since I think these are being pulled by packers from the same retail boxes we see in stores. However, getting all 5 of the same shouldn't happen and it definitely shouldn't happen on multiple occasions. There are only 3 or 4 of these figs that come 5 in a box and all 5 are not grouped together in the box. So if it isn't done on purpose, that would mean they just happen to grab the group of 3 and the group of 2 of that minifigure (assuming all boxes are packed the same). Yes, the way they have been put in the boxes greatly increases the chances of getting a full house, for example, but the chances of accidentally getting 5 of a kind is very slim - especially considering that nobody is getting 5 ninjas or robots but always 5 dummies.

[MisterFubar]

I can't believe how much thought some of you are putting into this.

Of the 10 I've now recieved from S&H I only got 2 duplicates. 2 Cheerleaders and 2 Dummies. My 3rd order should show up soon, we'll see if my luck keeps up.

[Arkov]

The probability of getting doubles of a figure in a randomly filled order are 1 out of 256, or 0.39%. If anyone has gotten triples in a random order, that's a 1 out of 4,096 chance, or 0.024% chance. If triples in a set have happened to anyone, you should buy a few scratch-off lottery tickets cause you've got some serious luck. Either that or something fishy is going on.

If you bought two figures the probability of getting doubles for a specific minifig is 1 in 256. getting doubles of any figure is 16 in 256, which is a 6.24% chance assuming complete randomness (which is unlikely). the probability of doubles if you get five is about 25%

[Diaaabo]

This weekend I got the spaceman and a caveman with a leg shorter than the other :P

[The Brain]

The probability discussions are just a tad hilarious. The fact is, the figures are lined up in the boxes...they are not assorted by fig per box count and then scattered throughout the box. I know this, because I dug into a fresh box at TRU, and bought a row of them. Guess what? 3 divers, 3 skaters, etc...and they were one right after the other. If the S@H guys are grabbing them in the same manner that I did, then getting duplicates is not probability, maliciousness, or any of the other "theories" out there...it's just simply going to happen. You can begin your statistical analysis and breakdown if you assume that S@H is going to rummage and scatter a ton of packs together before selecting your order. But I doubt that's happening.

This does make more sense. I was not aware earlier how these figures were exactly packaged within the box, as I have been unable to locate any at local stores. I also just assumed that the S@H folks were drawing from some massive pile of figs, rather than the boxes of 60 (which I now see is clearly what they're doing).

If you bought two figures the probability of getting doubles for a specific minifig is 1 in 256. getting doubles of any figure is 16 in 256, which is a 6.24% chance assuming complete randomness (which is unlikely). the probability of doubles if you get five is about 25%

This too is something I forgot to think about, but I was basing my argument on only one figure (any figure, but a specific one).

Point being, the probability about obtaining these figures is irrelevant--just try to grab em while you can.

[stevenli]

The probability discussions are just a tad hilarious. The fact is, the figures are lined up in the boxes...they are not assorted by fig per box count and then scattered throughout the box. I know this, because I dug into a fresh box at TRU, and bought a row of them. Guess what? 3 divers, 3 skaters, etc...and they were one right after the other. If the S@H guys are grabbing them in the same manner that I did, then getting duplicates is not probability, maliciousness, or any of the other "theories" out there...it's just simply going to happen. You can begin your statistical analysis and breakdown if you assume that S@H is going to rummage and scatter a ton of packs together before selecting your order. But I doubt that's happening.

I mentioned in my post that the figs are grouped together in the boxes. Getting multiples doesn't surprise me based on this since I think these are being pulled by packers from the same retail boxes we see in stores. However, getting all 5 of the same shouldn't happen and it definitely shouldn't happen on multiple occasions. There are only 3 or 4 of these figs that come 5 in a box and all 5 are not grouped together in the box. So if it isn't done on purpose, that would mean they just happen to grab the group of 3 and the group of 2 of that minifigure (assuming all boxes are packed the same). Yes, the way they have been put in the boxes greatly increases the chances of getting a full house, for example, but the chances of accidentally getting 5 of a kind is very slim - especially considering that nobody is getting 5 ninjas or robots but always 5 dummies.

It's because nobody is complaining on the 5 ninjas/robots receipt. Most happy people don't bother to respond or post about things, unless of course they are AFOL.

That said, the dummies are all clustered together

[Mister Ed]

Well I finally got some. I drove to the LEGO store across town, got there at opening (there was a line) and got my 5. There is pretty much no way I'll get the whole series, as I am unwilling to pay aftermarket prices, and the supply at the LEGO store was pretty well depleted even before I left. So five is it, I guess. Sigh.

I was a popular guy, though, with my large, clear sheet of barcodes. Others had tiny ones. I got a Caveman, Clown, Robot, Crash Test Dummy, and Skater. I noticed, even in the big bin they had dumped them all into, they seemed to be clustered. The first three I picked up were Zombies.

It occurred to me, after I had left, that I should have at least asked if my son could get five, too. Yeah, he's only 4, but I could have had him check out separately with cash.
(Many other folks there were clearly families getting five per family member.)

[SuperDave]

It's because nobody is complaining ... unless of course they are AFOL.
That said, the dummies are all clustered together

I find the double meaning in this statement hilarious.

[The Brain]

I may be able to score big for my collection today. A friend said that a store he works at has some in stock, and he's going to hold 10-ish for me to buy. Brain = happy.

[Mister Ed]

Are you going to at least tell us what kind of store your friend works at?

[MisterFubar]

Local tru had 3 fresh cases out so I sorted through and grabbed my 16... I was on a time crunch so I just did a quick visual scan, the barcodes are really easy to tell apart by the fat, medium and skinny bars. Will find out tonight if I actually got all 16.

When I got to the front I was inofrmed they had a case set aside for me, but I just couldn't bring myself to buy it. Not with the SW summer sets just around the corner.

[stevenli]

*

Price
USD 1.99
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Sold out

[MisterFubar]

Local tru had 3 fresh cases out so I sorted through and grabbed my 16... I was on a time crunch so I just did a quick visual scan, the barcodes are really easy to tell apart by the fat, medium and skinny bars. Will find out tonight if I actually got all 16.

When I got to the front I was informed they had a case set aside for me, but I just couldn't bring myself to buy it. Not with the SW summer sets just around the corner.

Shorted myself a Cowboy and an Indian and ended up with an extra Diver and Nacho Libre. Not bad considering how quick I picked them out. I think I was in and out of the store in about 5 minutes.

We'll see what I end up with when my last S@H order shows up, but I may end up doing some trading for a Cowboy and an Indian. Or I could always go back to the store.

[Mister Ed]

*

Price
USD 1.99
*

Sold out

Eh, I wasn't gonna buy from Shop@Home anyway, with all the news of multiple duplicates in a selection of 5 figs.